Farm bankers predict recession for rural economy

Farm bankers predict recession for rural economy

With your southeast regional farm newspaper, I’m Haylie Shipp. It is the agricultural information network.

There are a lot of metrics… numbers that we track year after year and honestly they go unnoticed because there are rarely huge changes. However, in our current environment, this is not the situation. Creighton University’s June Rural Main Street Index fell into negative territory for the first time since September 2020. The index ranges from zero to 100, with growth territory at an index of 50 and above .

Dr. Ernie Goss is co-creator of the RMI. He says June’s reading of 49.8 is below neutral growth, a place the index hasn’t been in some time. And, furthermore, he says that an overwhelming majority of farm bankers in the survey predict a recession for the rural economy…

“More than nine out of 10 bankers rank the probability of recession above 50%, so only 7% rank the probability of recession below 50%. So most bankers see a recession coming, and that is, of course, a big deal for small businesses and even some of the big rural main street businesses.

I don’t want to leave you on a negative note. So when they asked those same bankers about income for 2022, they expect net farm income to increase 12-13% from last year.

About Keneth T. Graves

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